The problem with most politicians are fear of exposing
‘explosive hallucination and negative perception’, especially when they are in
power. No leaders would like to see
their words, actions and public performances are criticized or ridiculed by
opponents and people in India. They
consider it as an offense and insult, especially if they are in power and
cannot take it on their stride, instead, they will try to suppress the
dissenting voices and alternative opinions. They are fully proud and convinced of
their knowledge and wisdom that is superior to anyone and the given people
mandate is proof of acceptance to do ‘everything’ during their tenure in power.
Their balanced resolve once considered as their strength becoming obdurate and afraid
of preemptive comments aimed to befuddle their goal. In
contemporary India, we have so many leaders surrounded by ‘Yes Men’ who don’t
like to disturb the apple-cart and our prime minister Mr. Narendra Modi is no
different.
When he became Prime Minister, he had nothing lose. A clean politician not mired with corruption
charges with a well nurtured brand Modi.
He had everything to gain and was gaining. The trust level by people who had voted and
those who did not vote are relatively much better than any other leader in
recent past. He, in fact, had an agenda
and suitable execution plan for next five years and all he need is to start
executing. He is executing them
including well researched and prepared public speeches supported by a good
public relation team. A group of social
media team overworks and ensure that Modi is on top of media and digital contents.
There comes, the daring adventure of ‘black money hunter’ a
disruptive plan with three-pronged strategy.
Get black money out from hole, fill the empty hole with opposition
political leaders and recapitalize the economy with lakhs of crores. The idea is remarkable, interesting and
raring to go. It is quite interesting
like a Bollywood film script and had all masala mixes for a blockbuster. The economic climate is conducive. Inflation is all time low and
consistent. GDP growth also steady and all
he need is to give a push to manufacturing segment and increase export to
improve GDP. Further he got the
assurance of almost 60 billion dollars as foreign investment that is more than
double comparing with UPA’s second term.
On political side, he had won every state election on his own and
appointed CM on his own will. A terrific
advantage that any politician would envy of him.
On personal level, Mr. Modi can imprint his name in the
history of India as the best ever Prime Minister. The modern Iron Man who don’t care of anyone
when it comes to the welfare of the nation.
His idea of disruptive political strategy is well intended, but was it
well thought out?
In absence of Economic Advisory Council, Mr. Modi is forced
to depends on National Institution for Transforming India, the policy think
tank that is dear to him. NITI and
Finance Ministers are the two gateways for economic advises for Prime
Minister. Moreover, the strategy need to
be developed and implemented with utmost secrecy and therefore his inner circle
has been further reduced to handful of trusted minds. This itself shows his own discomfort or
distrust with his cabinet colleagues or fear of failure prevented him from
disclosing to them. Mr. Modi launched
his mid-night surgical strike on black money only to be exposed soon as the
most uncoordinated method ever in the history of Indian economy.
I was coming from Karikkal after almost finalized a rental
deal to start my retail textile showroom and received a call from a friend of
mine informing Rs. 500 and 1000 currencies are illegal tenders. (I had promptly shelved my project in a week
time, especially as an NRI I do not want to puzzle with political and economic
uncertainty where I will be deprived of focusing on improving business). I was blinded by the news, because replacing
currencies are always done in phased manner and what made our PM to declare them
illegal effective immediately? We stuck
with a restaurant and after coercing the restaurant owner we finally managed to
pay and that too as if we are dealing something illegal. I welcomed PM’s decision expecting that there
might be something to law abiding citizens like us.
There comes the financial tsunami with all common men and
women are forced to worship bank gods and live at the mercy of currency ration
implemented by Finance ministry. On personal front, my cargo is held at Chennai
airport due to my inability to withdraw cash.
While our PM is encouraging us to do cashless transaction with lot of
lectures from ministers, media clowns and advertisements, his own customs
department in Chennai was demanding cash payments. I was driven mad and pulled my friends to
arrange cash as I am stuck at Cargo offices.
A friend of mine was kind enough to send five of his employees to bank queues
to exchange currency and finally managed to clear with demurrage obviously not
on my fault. Hundreds of people died at
bank entrances while police and tax officials were nabbing people with crores
of new currency notes elsewhere. Common people
accepted all hardships expecting some fortunes will befall on them by the mercy
of Mr. Modi’s bold and brave decision.
Meanwhile, Mr. Modi delivered an emotional speech in Goa during
stone laying ceremony of greenfield airport.
His speech was flawless if we look into the context of his intention,
vision and goal. He was in fact broke
down during the speech and it shows that how much he loved this decision and
subsequently the fear of failure started to haunt him. If intention is the only parameter to judge
the rulers than we should also accept Emergency declared by late PM Mrs.
Ghandhi.
Mr. Modi’s speech suggesting that he had developed a special
bond with power and allowed this to disrupt his own mental equilibrium as it
happened with Madam Indira Ghandhi. Certainly,
the macho man attitude and ‘I am the savior’ mental conformity took over our
Prime Minister and the outcome is not a disruptive political strategy for good,
but for bad. Within a month as many as
rules were changed on daily basis to maneuver unprecedented shocks and awes
encouraged by stiff agitation from opposition and of course rudderless public. Government was clearly under the faulty disaster
management due to re-calibration of ATM and printing of new currencies.
Former Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh says ‘it is an
organized loot and legalized plundering of public money’ and warned that this
unanimous action of Mr. Modi will easily take away 2% of GDP growth. Though his second point of 2 GDP loss is
proved within a year, we are yet to verify his first statement.
Why Demonetization was launched?
The initial objective of demonetization was to unearth black
money; drain the terror funding
to Kashmir separatist activities and Maoists in addition to weaning out
counterfeit notes in market. Removing of
corruption from political and administration of India. Later, government added
cashless digital transaction and enlarging of tax bracket as additional
objectives.
What should have happened?
The returning of cash to bank should have been between 70
and 80% of estimated money circulation in market. The balance that is failed to return will add
up a good amount, enough to launch few massive welfare schemes. Recapitalizing to bank for healthy capital
strength and increase in lending activities.
Reduction of terrorism in Kashmir valley. Unearthing and arresting of politicians and
government officials with huge cash hoardings amassed from illegal wealth. Setting a smooth platform for the launching
of GST with lesser cap than present 28%. A successful model for other countries to
emulate demonetization.
On political front, decimating Congress once for all. Modi becoming the Robin Hood of Indian
politics and creating an ever-lasting legacy on Indian public and politics. Large number of political defection from
opposition parties to BJP. Bringing Kashmir separatists to negotiation table.
Stopping of corruption in government offices.
What has happened?
99% of cash returned to system, thus buried the dream of
massive welfare schemes and capital injection to much needed banking system. Rs. 15.28 lakhs crore returned to bank
against Rs. 15.44 lakhs crore in market.
Net benefit is a meager amount of Rs. 16,000 crore which is failed to
return.
Around 500 crore worth of counterfeit notes were discovered
against spending of around 7,965 crores for printing new notes to replace 500
and 1000 denominations excluding huge HR expenditures incurred during the
operation.
Government received half the dividend of Rs. 30,659 crores
compared to Rs. 65,880 crores in previous years due to demonetization. (http://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/rbi-annual-report-loss-demonetisation-printing-notes-note-ban-data/story/259391.html)
The Modi
government’s demonetization decision may have resulted in the loss of roughly
1.5 million jobs, according to new survey data put out by the Centre for
Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A drop
in the labour participation is the sign of economy slowdown.
Unorganized economic segment experienced the loss of around
70% during demonetization crises and slowly recovering. Needless to say, that almost 86% of cash
returned to the market and few marginal increase in digital transaction. Cash rich status quo continues despite of
demonetization.
72% increase in army personnel death in Kashmir in
comparison with previous years, whereas it is considerably reduced in North
East. (Refer the link for more detail
related terrorism in Kashmir and North East: http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/3-years-of-modi-govt-terrorism-claims-more-lives-in-jk-situation-mixed-in-north-east-78641)
Barring few arrests of businessmen and officials during cash
crises, there are no significant findings of black money hoarders within
India. While RBI have found spontaneous
depositing of huge amount on certain number of accounts, this can invite
penalties and tax payments and not something to cheer about with
demonetization.
Is corruption stopped? No one will think so. Instead of
going in deep, I wish to mention that corruption at ministerial level must have
been stopped, due to Mr. Modi’s strong hands on involvement in central
government, but that cannot be said so on state government levels, at least in
Tamil Nadu. But for common people
corruption is existing in all over the country and in fact increased at every
level in their day to day requirements from government offices.
Technically, politically and economically demonetization is a
failed exercise and better to focus on future rather than holding it as a great
achievement of BJP government, if not success.
Countering opposition arguments by constantly changing goalpost is not
justifiable. It may be convenient or
appealing to intellectuals to speak about structural change, reform, future
benefits, etc, but neither Mr. Modi, not Mr. Jaitley outlined the same while
demonetization was launched. ‘Work on
progress or growth sequence’ arguments cannot be accepted since the government
drags entire population on road with their magic word of fight against black
money, terrorism, corruption and counterfeit notes.
Opposition parties charting a massive road show and decided
to observe 8th November as black day true to their spirit of opposition. Ruling BJP has decided to counter with ‘Anti Black
Money Day’ knowing that there is nothing much to boast about it, but accepting
failure would be fatal. Most of BJP or
Modi followers may hail this decision is bold and would credit to Mr. Modi for being
bold. The argument of ‘being bold’ do
not support the failure of demonetization as any decision is validated with its
results only.
BJP countering opposition with ‘Anti Black Money Day’ should
have been avoided. Accepting the
management mistake is not a sign of weakness, rather a sign of honesty and
strength. However, considering Indian
polity, we can expect our leaders to harness on opposition weakness and never
bothered about their own weakness. Subsequently
a loss in Gujarat will aggravate Modi’s position and will be tough to face 2019
parliament election. Knives will be out
from his own NDA colleagues, unless Mr. Modi comes out with some pragmatic and
logical plan to stem the rot. Not the
magical wand.
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