Saturday, May 07, 2011

Pakistan, hard truth and the future

Pakistan once again proved to the world that they are failing as a nation. The recent surgical operation by US army in eliminating Osama Bin Laden, perhaps an outrageous action against the sovereignty of Pakistan is a clear example of how Pakistan is administrating themselves. The country is governed by three command system and each one believes that they are superior to others. The civilian head of the nation, the president is simply not in control of other two strong establishments Army and ISI. Though constitutionally the president is supreme commander of the nation, invariably the other two establishments always ignore the president and do what they want. These three command systems with three different objectives not only destroying Pakistan and in fact responsible for the region’s persisting problems.

Osama’s family was living in Pakistan for the past six years itself a proof that there is a proper network system is functioning or supporting him. Osama was not a coward like Saddam who was dusted out of a bunker. Osama had comfortable life in proper living circumstances under the supervision of one or more of Pakistan command system! I personally cannot believe that Osama’s existence in Pakistan without the knowledge of any of these three command system. How effective he was and kind of authority he wields on Al Qaeda is not a matter now. What is puzzling is the Pakistan’s reaction after his death. The contradicting statements from president, prime minister and complete silence from army creates ambiguity and even panic among neighbors especially India.

Was Osama kept under dark by Pakistan’s one or more commanding system for a better bargain in future? Was Pakistan capable enough to hide him from CIA? Does CIA actually not strong enough to penetrate the Pakistan’s terrorist network support system? Does one or more commanding system lured Osama to Pakistan in recent days to handover to USA? Or is there any black sheep in Pakistan military or ISI who blows the whistle to CIA about Osama’s compound? Can USA able to do 40 minutes surgical operation without the support of Pakistan Army or ISI or the black sheep within the army? Above all who is in control of nuclear weapons?

There are numerous questions and no answers. The truth is that Pakistan is scrambling after Osama’s death. Their statements are as porous as in Pakistan’s north eastern border. Probably the north eastern border may not be a big issue now, whereas the danger is in Islamabad and entire Pakistan. Pakistan is sheltering lots of unwanted and terrorist elements from all over the world. The border between the religious leaders and fanatic elements within Pakistan seems to be blurring or at least to the world. They allow these elements to thrive for a handsome compensation pocketed by individuals. Pakistan is living under constant threat from within and outside and their national vision is nothing but how to tame India. They fool themselves with so called Indian hegemony, but unable to understand their own internal conflicts that are more dangerous than external. They are not only harming themselves, but also pulling down their neighbors including India to destruction level. The civilian heads of the country is proving to be weak and their efficiency level is negative. Military is no longer respecting the politicians or political leaders and no explanation is required.

Is Pakistan’s present situation good or bad for world and especially to USA and India? The answer would be bad even for Pakistan. Pakistan is heading towards a military rule. USA will press for a military head and is safer for next decade, especially to USA. The military rule would also protect Pakistan’s vulnerability against ever increasing poverty and ailing economic system. The military rule will unify the three commanding system under one and is advantage to USA to control the region. USA cannot simply pull out from Afghanistan while its neighbor is the breeding ground for terrorism. USA must seriously thinking about Pakistan than Afghanistan and Taleban. Pakistan can still maneuver with Taleban for its benefits. Taleban can overrun Afghanistan if Pakistan provides the logistics support and therefore the control of Pakistan is vital for USA. All permutations lead to yet another military rule in Pakistan with blessings from USA. In fact, a small gift to Pakistan military leader or leaders in aiding USA to eliminate Osama forever.

Alternatively, Pakistan is living under aids, especially from USA. Pakistan serves the interest of USA and cannot anger their master at any cost. Hence, the right and viable option for Pakistan is to dump all these issues with a military coup. A military coup will erase all odd issues and give fresh look at Pakistan’s importance in this region. Finally, the military leaders would find it more comfortable in dealing with USA and India than allowing Zardaris and Nawazs.

A change is happening within Pakistan military establishments and their attitude towards their political leaders and Osama death is a perfect catalyst to accelerate the change. Change is inevitable and the question is how far the change can help or disturb India. India needs to work on various scenarios to arrive at a right platform to face their own problems at Pakistan border and Kashmir separation issue. The one scenario would be looking at the basic tenants of Pakistan through alternative perspective of India as its big brother, not as an enemy. Pakistan will have to accept India as its big brother who can still love the younger brother though he seceded for reasons full of illusion.

The creation of Pakistan for Muslims in aftermath of British exit in subcontinent is still stands as a monumental blender, at least to me and need to be corrected. It cannot be corrected without the effective participation of India in Pakistan’s future. India requires working with likeminded countries to correct this mistake. Above all, India needs to work with Pakistan’s civil society to correct the historical mistake. India requires reaching across the civil society of Pakistan as those sane voices need to be heard with positive mindset.

America should take India as its region’s prime partner prior to their withdrawal from Afghanistan. USA cannot just depend and waste their investments on Pakistan anymore even on military rule. India can play a constructive role in reconstructing the region including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indian leadership must look at an alternative approach of isolating Pakistan’s leadership including military heads. Cultivating Pakistan’s civil society towards India by placing the trust on them and allowing them to reciprocate would bridge the gap between people of India and Pakistan. Our shared values and history will help to formulate a strong civil society of both countries which will allow the new leaderships to prosper and manage Pakistan as a good neighbor. India too require to invest in Pakistan in positive manner.

If not, Pakistan needs to face numerous surgical operations from USA. Pakistan had enough of them and simply need to live a decent life along with international community, because the ordinary citizens of Pakistan deserve peace and progress.

No comments: